Just a quick one on the new attacks on the Ukrainian northern border. We’ve had some information presented here, so most of you probably know in a general sense what is happening, but it is difficult to compare this to what the rest of the ground war looks like.
Russia has launched attacks in mainly two places: one 38 km NNE of Kharkiv center toward the town of Lyptsi and the other 6 km NW of the town of Vovchansk.
Lyptsi Attack:
This is the larger of the two. It has taken 1 town (Strilecha — pop. approx. 2K) and 5 small villages near the border. To give scale to this, that light blue line on the map is 3.5 km long. The total area taken thus far is about 49 sq km as of this morning according to the mappers. As comparison, the area taken thus far this quarter along the entire eastern frontline is about 148 sq km.
Opinion (partly): The six villages were “sacrificial.” You can’t man everywhere to stop everything. You recognize that, should an attack come, you will lose some ground, e.g. Strilecha is actually on the border itself. As stated by the Ukrainians themselves, the main defenses in this area are further back.
Opinion (all): I have nothing really to back this up, but my impression is that this isn’t really a big, well-supported attack. Look at the map above. The red dots are geolocated sightings of Russian troops, usually some Ukrainian drone taking something out. There really ain’t that many compared to serious attacks in other places. If this was Chasiv Yar, there’s a gazillion red dots. There were more geolocates when the anti-Putin fratboy “brigades” did their beer runs into Russia in March.
If I had to guess, not being on the ground to see the terrain (TERRAIN MATTERS), things will stiffen up on the N side of the towns of Lukyantsi and Hlyboke where the big reservoir protects the left flank and rough terrain in between the two towns channels attackers somewhat. However, their right flank is vulnerable. They may wait to mount their more serious defense until the N side of Lyptsi itself. We shall see as the days progress.
Vovchansk Attack:
The smaller one. It has taken 2 small villages near the border (again sacrificed). To give scale to this, the light blue line is 2.5 km long. The total area taken thus far is about 23 sq km. So the distance covered is shorter and area taken is about half.
Ditto the “opinions” stated above except here, there is but one geolocate of Russian forces. Note that the deepest portion of the attack is into an area that is streams and marshy soft ground. Make no sense. Given the soft ground that is ahead of the leading edge of this attack, it is unlikely they will succeed in threatening Vovchansk’s left flank. Maybe this is just to flank the smaller Hatyshche. That could work.
More opinion: As stated by jjohnjj in his excellent comment yesterday, these are likely a “holding” or diversionary attacks meant to force Ukraine to divert resources from Russia’s main goal (probably Chasiv Yar). It is not a “feint,” which is more fakery or deception. While it could be a serious attempt to accomplish more, I’m not seeing it.
A holding or diversionary attack can be executed by second rate troops without a whole lot of support. It can actually be an excellent way to train newbees in live combat and break in fresh, newly formed or newly reconstituted units. Not a whole lot is at stake and the consequences of failure are minimal.
This could also be simply to generate more “Woe is me”/”Ukraine is losing”/”Russians take village of xxxxxx (pop. 55)” headlines in western press, so purely political in nature.